Digitalni euro
Eurosistem se pripravlja na morebitno izdajo digitalnega eura, ki bo dopolnjeval fizično gotovino.
KONFERENCA
4. november 2026
Konferenca ECB o denarnih trgih 2026
Pridružite se nam jutri ob 9.00 po srednjeevropskem času na letni konferenci ECB o denarnih trgih, na kateri se bodo zbrali centralni bančniki, tržni udeleženci in akademiki ter razpravljali o dogajanjih na denarnih trgih, tehničnih inovacijah in prihodnjih izzivih.
Neposredni prenos
GOVOR
2. november 2026
Prednosti Evrope v fragmentiranem svetu
Najboljši odziv Evrope na negotov svet je povezovanje, pravi podpredsednik Boris Vujčić. Ne moremo oblikovati trgovinskih politik drugih držav, lahko pa zmanjšamo ovire znotraj enotnega trga ter tako povečamo odpornost in konkurenčnost.
Podpredsednikov govor
GOLJUFIJE
Zaščitite se pred goljufijami
Goljufi v poskusih, da bi prevarali ljudi, pogosto zlorabljajo ime in logotip ECB ali se izdajajo za uslužbence ECB. ECB vas ne bo nikoli spraševala po naložbah, denarju ali osebnih podatkih. Oglejte si, kako prepoznati in se izogniti goljufijam, med katerimi so lažna e-poštna sporočila, telefonski klici, profili na družbenih omrežjih in prevare s pomočjo umetne inteligence.
Oglejte si nasvete- 4 November 2026
- PRESS RELEASE
- 3 November 2026
- WEEKLY FINANCIAL STATEMENTEnglishOTHER LANGUAGES (22) +Annexes
- 3 November 2026
- WEEKLY FINANCIAL STATEMENT - COMMENTARY
- 2 November 2026
- MFI INTEREST RATE STATISTICS
- 30 October 2026
- GOVERNING COUNCIL DECISIONS - OTHER DECISIONSEnglishOTHER LANGUAGES (23) +
- 30 October 2026
- PRESS RELEASE
- 2 November 2026
- Speech by Boris Vujčić, Vice-President of the ECB, at the Central Bank of Ireland’s Financial System ConferenceAnnexes
- 30 October 2026
- Keynote speech by Philip R. Lane, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, at the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco Economic Research Symposium on AI and the economy
- 29 October 2026
- Keynote address by Piero Cipollone, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, at an EU T+1 Industry Committee event on “One year to T+1”
- 29 October 2026
- Christine Lagarde, President of the ECB, Boris Vujčić, Vice-President of the ECB, Frankfurt am Main, 29 October 2026EnglishOTHER LANGUAGES (23) +Related
- 29 October 2026
- 26 October 2026
- Keynote speech by Frank Elderson, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB and Vice-Chair of the Supervisory Board of the ECB, at COP17 Finance and Biodiversity Day
- 24 October 2026
- Interview with Piero Cipollone, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, conducted by Roberto Sommella on 21 October 2026
- 20 October 2026
- Interview with Frank Elderson, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB and Vice-Chair of the Supervisory Board of the ECB, conducted by Aloysius Widmann on 14 October 2026
- 8 October 2026
- Interview with Piero Cipollone, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, conducted by Daniele Manca on 23 September 2026
- 6 October 2026
- Interview with Philip R. Lane, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, conducted by Domenico Conti on 1 October 2026
- 30 September 2026
- Interview with Christine Lagarde, President of the ECB, conducted by Jean-Claude Bourbon and Marie Dancer on 16 and 28 September 2026
- 4 November 2026
- This summer's heatwaves, droughts and wildfires were a warning. Their economic impact has so far been limited, but the costs of a warming climate are rising. Europe needs better protection against the financial fallout of climate change and a more flexible energy system that makes the most of clean power.Details
- JEL Code
- Q54 : Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics, Environmental and Ecological Economics→Environmental Economics→Climate, Natural Disasters, Global Warming
- 3 November 2026
- Despite the expansion of the Single Euro Payments Area, or SEPA for short, many households continue to rely on costly channels for transferring money across borders in Europe. New survey evidence suggests that public awareness of European payment integration is still surprisingly limited.Details
- JEL Code
- F24 : International Economics→International Factor Movements and International Business→Remittances
F36 : International Economics→International Finance→Financial Aspects of Economic Integration
G21 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→Banks, Depository Institutions, Micro Finance Institutions, Mortgages
- 2 November 2026
- Has the latest energy shock triggered a new wave of food price increases? To find out, we’ve used innovative AI tools to track changes in price setting by supermarkets. So far, the rise in the repricing momentum has been weaker than in 2022, following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.Details
- JEL Code
- E31 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Price Level, Inflation, Deflation
E52 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Monetary Policy
D40 : Microeconomics→Market Structure and Pricing→General
C81 : Mathematical and Quantitative Methods→Data Collection and Data Estimation Methodology, Computer Programs→Methodology for Collecting, Estimating, and Organizing Microeconomic Data, Data Access
- 21 October 2026
- Despite a sharp rise in energy prices in early 2026, the euro area economy has proved resilient. This blog examines how decreased vulnerability to energy shocks, policy support and the global AI upswing have helped cushion the impact, and explores what is needed to sustain that resilience.Details
- JEL Code
- E32 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Business Fluctuations, Cycles
Q43 : Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics, Environmental and Ecological Economics→Energy→Energy and the Macroeconomy
E62 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook→Fiscal Policy
- 20 October 2026
- Has food inflation lost its bite? In this blog we explain why food inflation has fallen sharply, why new pressures are building from energy and extreme weather, and why many households are still feeling the effects of higher food prices.Details
- JEL Code
- E20 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Consumption, Saving, Production, Investment, Labor Markets, and Informal Economy→General
E30 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→General
- 4 November 2026
- WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 3307Details
- Abstract
- Most empirical models of trend inflation treat it as a latent random walk driven by unobserved shocks, so they cannot say which economic conditions move it. Deep- π*makes the innovations to the trend a possibly nonlinear function of a large number of macroeconomic indicators, estimated with neural networks, so that Shapley values can be used to attribute every movement of the trend to the indicators behind it. Two complementary loss functions define a current trend, which fits inflation today, and a forward-looking trend, which best predicts inflation over the next year. In US data, employment-related variables were the largest contributors to the post-pandemic rise of the current trend. However, the forwardlooking trend rose earlier, with real activity, employment, and money and credit as the main drivers from the start of the pandemic, and peaked eight to twelve months before the current trend. Both trends looked through most of the movements in energy and commodity prices. The contributions of the indicators are nonlinear, with sizeable interactions between them. Re-estimated every month during the surge, the model forecast inflation more accurately than the standard UC-SV model and a random walk, and in early 2021, when professional forecasters expected inflation of 3% or less, the forward-looking trend was already signalling an increase in persistent inflation.
- JEL Code
- C45 : Mathematical and Quantitative Methods→Econometric and Statistical Methods: Special Topics→Neural Networks and Related Topics
C53 : Mathematical and Quantitative Methods→Econometric Modeling→Forecasting and Prediction Methods, Simulation Methods
E31 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Price Level, Inflation, Deflation
E37 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
E52 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Monetary Policy
- 3 November 2026
- WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 3306Details
- Abstract
- Government spending effectiveness depends critically on how it is financed. Using state dependent SVAR models and local projections on post-war US data, we show that fiscal expansions financed with short-term debt generate significantly larger output multipliers than those financed with long-term debt. This difference mainly stems from private consumption responses: short-term financing crowds in consumption while long-term financing does not. Torationalize this finding, we construct an incomplete markets model in which households invest in short-term and long-term assets. Short assets provide liquidity/safety services; households can (more readily) use them to cover sudden idiosyncratic spending needs. An increase in the supply of these assets, through a short-term debt-financed government expenditure shock, boosts private consumption. We first show this mechanism analytically in a simplified model, and then quantify it in a carefully calibrated New Keynesian model. We find that fiscal multipliers differ substantially across financing modes, with short-term-financed shocks typically exceeding unity while long-term-financed shocks typically fall below unity. We show these differences persist across monetary and fiscal policy regimes, with important implications for optimal debt management and stimulus design.
- JEL Code
- D52 : Microeconomics→General Equilibrium and Disequilibrium→Incomplete Markets
E31 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Price Level, Inflation, Deflation
E43 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Money and Interest Rates→Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
E62 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook→Fiscal Policy
- 3 November 2026
- WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 3305Details
- Abstract
- The functioning of sovereign bond markets is closely intertwined with repo markets, where investors finance long positions and source bonds for short sales. We show, theoretically and empirically, how conditions in the cash bond market fundamentally shape repo rates: When demand for cash bonds exceeds available supply, arbitrageurs, notably hedge funds, step in to bridge the gap by shorting bonds and borrowing them in the repo market. These arbitrage strategies drive a wedge between monetary policy rates and repo rates, generating “specialness”. To investigate the drivers of investors’ demand for repo contracts, we obtain regulatory data covering the entire universe of repos backed by German sovereign bonds. We identify the ultimate borrowers and lenders of securities and estimate their demand and supply elasticities for the repo market. Supply, dominated by the public sector, accounts for 87% of the aggregate elasticity. Demand, driven mainly by hedge funds, is strongly inelastic: a 10% increase in borrowing costs reduces their borrowing by only 1%. Despite being among the most price-elastic investors in cash bond markets, hedge funds are inelastic in repo markets because their bond borrowing bridges the preferred-habitat demand in the cash bond market: their elasticity is inherited from their cash-market counterparties rather than being a primitive. As a result, repo rate specialness emerges as the equilibrium price reflecting demand pressures in the cash bond market, of which collateral scarcity from central bank purchases is a special case. Consequently, the same cash bond market imbalances affect both the pricing of safe assets and repos, two markets that are of crucial importance for the transmission of monetary policy.
- JEL Code
- E51 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Money Supply, Credit, Money Multipliers
E52 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Monetary Policy
E58 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Central Banks and Their Policies
G21 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→Banks, Depository Institutions, Micro Finance Institutions, Mortgages
- 2 November 2026
- WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 3304Details
- Abstract
- This paper studies the European Central Bank’s (ECB) perception of non-bank financial intermediaries (NBFIs) and how this perception is publicly communicated. We construct a perception index based on ECB speeches over the period 1998–2025. Sentiment in references to non-banks is classified by a large language model that we fine-tune on our own hand-labeled dataset constructed for this purpose. The resulting index reveals a predominantly negative and declining perception over time, particularly since the Global Financial Crisis. Negative sentiment is primarily associated with concerns related to financial stability and regulatory needs, whereas positive sentiment reflects the role of non-banks in fostering financial innovation and supporting market functioning. The index is made publicly available for future research.
- JEL Code
- E44 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Money and Interest Rates→Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
E52 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Monetary Policy
C80 : Mathematical and Quantitative Methods→Data Collection and Data Estimation Methodology, Computer Programs→General
- 2 November 2026
- RESEARCH BULLETIN - No. 148Details
- Abstract
- High public debt around the globe has revived concerns that it could impede central banks’ ability to control inflation. This article explains how public debt affects the work of central banks. They can still control inflation, but they must take public debt into account when setting rates, because debt affects the level of interest rates consistent with price stability.
- JEL Code
- E31 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Price Level, Inflation, Deflation
E62 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook→Fiscal Policy
- 30 October 2026
- WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 3303Details
- Abstract
- We use confidential granular data on euro area sovereign bond holdings to examine the heterogeneous behavior of investor types in response to country-specific geopolitical risk shocks. By distinguishing investor categories and accounting for their bond holding dynamics over time, we provide an empirical assessment of how different bond holders react to geopolitics. The analysis employs country-level geopolitical risk indices of the country of sovereign bonds, and applies local projection methods to estimate the dynamic responses of various investor groups to geopolitical risk shocks. In the case of high-debt euro area countries, i.e. Italy, France, Spain, and Belgium, we examine how geopolitical risks may trigger shifts in investor behavior that, in turn, could pose risks to fiscal sustainability.
- JEL Code
- G10 : Financial Economics→General Financial Markets→General
E02 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→General→Institutions and the Macroeconomy
E62 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook→Fiscal Policy
- 30 October 2026
- SURVEY OF MONETARY ANALYSTS - AGGREGATE RESULTS
- 30 October 2026
- SURVEY OF PROFESSIONAL FORECASTERSAnnexes
- 30 October 2026
- SURVEY OF PROFESSIONAL FORECASTERS
- 30 October 2026
- ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOXEconomic Bulletin Issue 7, 2026Details
- Abstract
- This box summarises the main findings from recent contacts between ECB staff and representatives of 64 leading non-financial companies operating in the euro area. According to these exchanges, which mainly took place between 28 September and 7 October 2026, activity continued to grow moderately in the third quarter with similar momentum expected for the fourth quarter. Growth was particularly focused in high-value manufacturing and IT services, while growth in consumer spending was relatively weak. Employment dynamics remained subdued, with many firms in cost-cutting mode. Growth in selling prices accelerated in the third quarter, reflecting rising costs owing to the ongoing conflict in the Middle East, but some slowing was expected in the fourth quarter. Contacts continued to anticipate moderating wage growth, but to a lesser degree than in the previous survey round.
- JEL Code
- E2 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Consumption, Saving, Production, Investment, Labor Markets, and Informal Economy
E3 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles
L2 : Industrial Organization→Firm Objectives, Organization, and Behavior
- 27 October 2026
- EURO AREA BANK LENDING SURVEYAnnexes
- 27 October 2026
- EURO AREA BANK LENDING SURVEY - ANNEX
- 26 October 2026
- SURVEY ON THE ACCESS TO FINANCE OF ENTERPRISES IN THE EURO AREAAnnexes
- 26 October 2026
- SAFE QUESTIONNAIRE
- 19 October 2026
- WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 3302Details
- Abstract
- General-purpose technologies create large opportunities but make their distribution across firms difficult to assess in real time. We use banks as interpreters of the rise of generative AI by studying lender-specific probability-of-default (PD) estimates for private firms in four large euro-area economies. As public attention to AI rises after ChatGPT, banks lower assessed default risk for borrowers in highly AI-exposed industries by about 5%. The reassessment is weaker for labor-intensive firms and stronger among lenders with pre-existing industry expertise. Yet the favorable industry-level effect is accompanied by a systematic reordering within product markets: banks reassess firms with stronger pre-ChatGPT market positions less favorably relative to their competitors, compressing the risk advantage associated with market leadership. Credit allocation moves in the same direction, with market leaders experiencing relatively lower drawn and committed credit, more relationship exits, and fewer new lenders. The reordering also predicts subsequent bad-credit events beyond banks’ consensus PDs. Internal bank assessments therefore provide a forward-looking measure of how generative AI is expected to reshape competitive risk.
- JEL Code
- D82 : Microeconomics→Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty→Asymmetric and Private Information, Mechanism Design
D83 : Microeconomics→Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty→Search, Learning, Information and Knowledge, Communication, Belief
G21 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→Banks, Depository Institutions, Micro Finance Institutions, Mortgages
G32 : Financial Economics→Corporate Finance and Governance→Financing Policy, Financial Risk and Risk Management, Capital and Ownership Structure, Value of Firms, Goodwill
O33 : Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth→Technological Change, Research and Development, Intellectual Property Rights→Technological Change: Choices and Consequences, Diffusion Processes
- 19 October 2026
- OCCASIONAL PAPER SERIES - No. 401Details
- Abstract
- This paper quantifies the regulatory cost of short-term money market transactions and analyses how post-global financial crisis prudential reforms shape the structure of euro area money markets and the redistribution of central bank reserves. As the stock of reserves declines with the normalisation of the European Central Bank’s balance sheet, trading in money markets is becoming increasingly important to banks’ liquidity management. As the related money market volumes rise, regulatory constraints may become a more visible determinant of trading activity and short-term rate formation. Focusing on key Basel III requirements – the liquidity coverage ratio, net stable funding ratio and leverage ratio – the paper derives stylised estimates of the marginal regulatory cost associated with unsecured and secured interbank transactions. The results indicate that unsecured interbank lending entails material regulatory costs, estimated at around 35 basis points for lenders and around 15 basis points for borrowers in the second half of 2025, reflecting capital and stable funding requirements. By contrast, secured transactions such as repurchase agreements benefit from substantially lower costs, typically well below 10 basis points when backed by high-quality collateral. These differences create structural incentives favouring secured over unsecured intermediation, suggesting that repo markets are likely to remain the main channel for reserve redistribution as the stock of reserves declines. The findings imply that post-crisis regulation has contributed to a persistent shift in the structure of euro area money markets, with implications for liquidity distribution and monetary policy implementation.
- JEL Code
- E43 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Money and Interest Rates→Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
E52 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Monetary Policy
E58 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Central Banks and Their Policies
G21 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→Banks, Depository Institutions, Micro Finance Institutions, Mortgages
G28 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→Government Policy and Regulation
- 16 October 2026
- OTHER PUBLICATION
- 15 October 2026
- WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 3301Details
- Abstract
- We study how frictions impact haircut setting in repo markets. Using transaction-level supervisory data and exploiting the 2021 introduction of the binding leverage ratio requirement, we show that three frictions jointly shape haircuts in the bilateral dealer-to-client segment: dealer balance sheet constraints, collateral convenience yields, and client outside options. In collateral-driven repos, binding leverage constraints and broader client outside options both raise haircuts, while higher convenience yields push them down. In funding-driven trades, the leverage constraint has no effect, higher convenience yields raise haircuts through the rehypothecation channel, and broader client outside options lower them. We rationalise these patterns in a bilateral bargaining model with periodic haircut renegotiation. Consistent with the model, constrained dealers exhibit higher repo-rate volatility and weaker pass-through of ECB policy rate changes in the collateral-driven segment. Post-crisis bank regulation thus carries potential unintended consequences for repo market functioning and the transmission of monetary policy.
- JEL Code
- C78 : Mathematical and Quantitative Methods→Game Theory and Bargaining Theory→Bargaining Theory, Matching Theory
E43 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Money and Interest Rates→Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
E52 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Monetary Policy
E58 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Central Banks and Their Policies
G12 : Financial Economics→General Financial Markets→Asset Pricing, Trading Volume, Bond Interest Rates
G21 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→Banks, Depository Institutions, Micro Finance Institutions, Mortgages
G28 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→Government Policy and Regulation
- 15 October 2026
- WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 3300Details
- Abstract
- Holding limits are a central design feature of proposed retail central bank digital currencies (CBDC). While such limits mechanically prevent individuals from exceeding a maximum balance, they may also generate behavioral responses whose directions are a priori unclear. We conducted an incentivized online experiment with participants from four euro-area countries, exogenously varying the presence and level of a holding limit to causally separate direct mechanical effects from behavioral effects. We find that behavioral responses increase holdings of the means of payment subject to the holding limit, consistent with an attraction effect. This effect is material only when the limit is high enough. Enabling reverse waterfall —automatic conversion into this limited means of payment— increases adoption while reducing holdings. These results suggest that combining holding limits with automatic funding mechanisms can support CBDC use while containing holdings, thereby helping to mitigate potential financial stability risks.
- JEL Code
- E42 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Money and Interest Rates→Monetary Systems, Standards, Regimes, Government and the Monetary System, Payment Systems
C91 : Mathematical and Quantitative Methods→Design of Experiments→Laboratory, Individual Behavior
D14 : Microeconomics→Household Behavior and Family Economics→Household Saving; Personal Finance
E58 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Central Banks and Their Policies
- 15 October 2026
- OTHER PUBLICATION
- 14 October 2026
- WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 3299Details
- Abstract
- How does heterogeneity in banks’ interest-rate risk exposure shape monetary policy transmission? We develop a quantitative macroeconomic model of heterogeneous banks to answer this question. We establish an irrelevance result: differences in interest-rate risk exposure between fixed- and variable-rate banking systems matter for transmission only when bank solvency concerns become relevant. Calibrating the model to the euro area, we show that idiosyncratic default risk pushes a substantial share of banks toward the solvency threshold, making heterogeneity quantitatively important. When policy rates rise, fixed-rate banks suffer net interest margin compression—funding costs increase while legacy loan income stays unchanged—eroding capital and triggering sharper deleveraging. The lending elasticity to monetary policy is one-third larger in fixed-rate economies. The effects extend to financial stability: tightening raises bank failure rates in fixed-rate systems while lowering them in variable-rate systems. The results provide a rationale for macroprudential and monetary policy coordination and for monetary policy gradualism.
- JEL Code
- E51 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Money Supply, Credit, Money Multipliers
E52 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Monetary Policy
G21 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→Banks, Depository Institutions, Micro Finance Institutions, Mortgages
G28 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→Government Policy and Regulation
- 14 October 2026
- WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 3298Details
- Abstract
- We introduce a novel measure of how European Central Bank (ECB) monetary policy is interpreted by analysts at major investment banks. We construct a “policy interpretation shock” based on the language used in analysts’ reports covering monetary policy decisions by the ECB’s Governing Council (GovC). The main identifying assumption is that changes in the way analysts report on policy communication by the GovC—that is, the change in the policy tone from the preview report to the recap report—reflect unexpected information revealed by the policy event. Using GPT-based sentiment extraction, we show that the tone in these reports closely tracks that of the GovC, often even anticipating shifts in tone. Changes in the policy tone before and after meetings capture how market intermediaries interpret and adjust their assessment of policy decisions. These interpretation shocks are followed by contractionary macroeconomic responses and systematic movements in financial-market prices. These findings underscore the important role of communication in shaping expectations and influencing economic outcomes.
- JEL Code
- E52 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Monetary Policy
E58 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Central Banks and Their Policies
E44 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Money and Interest Rates→Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
- 12 October 2026
- WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 3297Details
- Abstract
- Fiscal integration in a currency union is generally understood as a transfer from fiscally strong to fiscally weak countries. I show that this changes when common debt is paired with a non-defaultable common tax, even if national debt remains defaultable. The risky country gains from intertemporal trade: it receives a grant financed by a perpetual obligation it discounts more heavily than lenders do. The cost to the safe member is second-order and the tax removes it by insuring imperfectly correlated cycles rather than transferring resources in expectation. The calibration delivers a narrow Pareto-improving region: the tax that eliminates the risky country’s perverse incentive to default is negligible, while the tax that compensates the safe country is an order of magnitude larger. Joint spending on a public good expands the region and reverses that ordering: the safe country gains even before the common budget balances.
- JEL Code
- F34 : International Economics→International Finance→International Lending and Debt Problems
F36 : International Economics→International Finance→Financial Aspects of Economic Integration
F45 : International Economics→Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance
H63 : Public Economics→National Budget, Deficit, and Debt→Debt, Debt Management, Sovereign Debt
H87 : Public Economics→Miscellaneous Issues→International Fiscal Issues, International Public Goods - Network
- ECB Lamfalussy Fellowship Programme
Obrestne mere
| Mejni depozit | 2,50 % |
| Operacije glavnega refinanciranja (fiksna obrestna mera) | 2,65 % |
| Mejno posojilo | 2,90 % |
Stopnja inflacije
Več o inflacijiDevizni tečaji
| USD | US dollar | 1.1179 | |
| JPY | Japanese yen | 176.95 | |
| GBP | Pound sterling | 0.83358 | |
| CHF | Swiss franc | 0.9166 |
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Kaj je Evropska centralna banka?